As Kevin McCarthy begins the final descent of his turbulent bid for the speakerâs gavel, Republicans are bracing to see whether he lands the plane or crashes and burns.
After weeks of intense, down-to-the-wire negotiations, the California Republican is about out of time to lock down the needed 218 votes. With his yearslong effort to claim the speakership trapped in limbo, heâll first meet with his partyâs conference Tuesday morning behind closed doors, likely making his final case before members head to the House floor to vote.
Twice McCarthy has been on the precipice of taking the gavel, and twice a group of conservatives has worked to block him from the Houseâs most powerful perch. He bowed out of the race in 2015 amid the House Freedom Caucus opposition. This time, his allies say heâs prepared to fight until the potentially bitter end.
âHeâs steadfast. Heâs in this until hell freezes,â said Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), a McCarthy backer.
How long that fight will last is still unclear. McCarthy supporters say they expect him to keep Republicans on the House floor, instead of trying to adjourn for off-the-floor strategy sessions between ballots, as he hopes to grind down his opponents. And while a speakership vote has gone past the first ballot only once since the Civil War, Republicans are mentally preparing not just for multiple ballots, but also multiple days of voting.
When asked on Monday whether he had the necessary backing to claim the gavel, McCarthy predicted he would have a âgood dayâ but quipped that he didnât want to âtake away all the excitement.â
Itâs an inauspicious start not just for McCarthy, but also for a conference that already suffered a disappointing midterm election â attaining only a slim majority despite optimistic projections. Even if McCarthy manages to lock down the votes, heâs had to make key promises that guarantee his leadership would be severely weakened.
And while many House Republicans used to say McCarthy had the speakership in the bag, conversations surrounding his fate have dramatically shifted to a constant swirl of public posturing, endless hypothesizing, frequent strategizing and even some subtle shadow jockeying.
Five conservatives â Reps. Matt Gaetz of Florida, Andy Biggs of Arizona, Bob Good of Virginia, Matt Rosendale of Montana and Ralph Norman of South Carolina â are still vowing to oppose the Republican leader, and other members remain publicly undecided. McCarthy has worked fervently to lock down support, releasing a long list of concessions heâs prepared to make on rules changes, including making it easier to depose a speaker.
But so far it hasnât moved his staunch opposition. Gaetz, after a meeting with McCarthy, reiterated that he believes there are at least five ânoâ votes, including him, heading into Tuesday. Thatâs sparked some claims that McCarthyâs opponents arenât negotiating in good faith.
In a significant win for conservatives, McCarthy set the number of Republican backers needed to force a vote on deposing the speaker at five, to the dismay of some rank-and-file members. Itâs an about-face from just weeks ago, when the conference set the threshold to prompt such a vote, known as the motion to vacate, at a majority of its members. And some conservatives argue thatâs not good enough â they want one member to be able to force such a motion.
âI still think that, at the end of the day, Kevin gets it. And the people that [stand] to lose are the hardliners that have negotiated in bad faith,â said Rep. Guy Reschenthaler (R-Pa.), the current chief deputy whip.
McCarthy and allies like Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) say the latest rules package release has moved votes his way. But other members signaled otherwise.
Nine on-the-fence Republicans issued a letter after the rules package was released to say the proposed changes arenât yet enough to win them over. More ominously, they warned that his recent commitments come âalmost impossibly late to address continued deficiencies ahead of the opening of the 118th Congress on January 3rd.â
âNothing changes when nothing changes, and that must start from the top. Time to make the change or get out of the way,â Freedom Caucus Chair Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) tweeted on Sunday night.
The signatures on that letter included three incoming members who some House Republicans think could vote against McCarthy. One of them, Rep.-elect Anna Paulina Luna of Florida, told Steve Bannon on his podcast last week that sheâs âgotten a lot of emails from peopleâ urging her to oppose the California Republican and that âI do listen to what my constituents say.â
The additional names on the letter represent a fresh shot in the arm for McCarthy detractors, as speculation has swirled for weeks about who would publicly oppose the GOP leader besides the initial five. While some members waffled in private Freedom Caucus meetings about where their support stood, no others have stepped forward.
Meanwhile, it sparked frustration from McCarthyâs supporters, who questioned what else heâd have to offer his opponents in order to secure their votes.
âWeâve gone really, really far on a lot of fronts. ⊠People canât ask any more from him. Heâs done everything he possibly can,â Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), the co-chair of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus, said about McCarthy, whom he characterized as ânot giving up.â
Bacon added that he thought McCarthy had âdone enoughâ describing the negotiations so far as âunilateral concessions without getting anything back in return.â And while lawmakers expect that McCarthy might cut more, smaller deals before the speaker vote, some are warning that allowing just one member to force a vote to depose a speaker would be a step too far.
âThat would have a lot of pushback,â Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-N.D.) said about the possibility.
Still, some Republicans say there are members who have kept quiet but will publicly announce they oppose McCarthy the day of the vote, limiting his opportunities to win their support. Others have questioned whether the anti-McCarthy coalition is arranging to have more members vote against him on a second ballot, in an attempt to make the Californian look weaker.
And thereâs speculation that other names besides Biggs, who has acted as a McCarthy opposition figurehead but is not mounting a real bid for the gavel, will emerge to challenge McCarthy.
âYouâll see that name tomorrow on the second ballot,â Good, one of McCarthyâs detractors, teased during a Fox News interview on Monday.
On the other side of the rebellion, McCarthyâs allies have launched multiple efforts to communicate their unwavering support â appearing on news shows, sending letters to the conference and donning âO.K.â pins that stand for âOnly Kevin.â But other members said the move stunk of defensiveness, if not desperation.
Democratic leaders, meanwhile, arenât looking to make it any easier on McCarthy. Theyâve told their members not to miss any ballots, which would have lowered the number of votes the GOP leader needed, and to vote for the incoming minority leader, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.).
Some Republicans say McCarthy should make a deal to persuade about a dozen Democrats to leave the floor after several ballots, allowing him to skate through despite a handful of opponents among his own conference. Others, like Bacon, have floated that if conservatives block McCarthy, they could work with a band of centrist Democrats to elect a more moderate Republican instead.
But after weeks of behind-the-scenes drama, Republicans say they are ready to take the fight to the floor.
âWeâre negotiating with Jell-O,â Armstrong said. âItâs just time to start voting and keep voting.â
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